A new study by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has found that disruptions in wheat trade can have a significant impact on food security, especially in developing countries. The study, which was published in the journal Global Food Security, found that a 10% disruption in wheat trade could lead to a 1-3% increase in the price of wheat, and a 0.5-1.5% decline in global wheat consumption. This could have a devastating impact on food security, especially in countries that rely heavily on wheat imports.

The study also found that disruptions in wheat trade can have a disproportionate impact on the poor. This is because the poor spend a larger share of their income on food than the wealthy, and they are more likely to rely on wheat as a staple food. As a result, disruptions in wheat trade can lead to increased food insecurity and hunger among the poor.

The study's findings have important implications for policy makers. They suggest that countries need to take steps to reduce their dependence on wheat imports, and to develop contingency plans in case of disruptions in wheat trade. They also need to invest in programs to support the poor and vulnerable, who are most likely to be affected by disruptions in wheat trade.

Recommendations for policy makers

* Reduce dependence on wheat imports: Countries that rely heavily on wheat imports should take steps to reduce their dependence on this commodity. This can be done by increasing domestic wheat production, diversifying agricultural production, and developing alternative sources of food.

* Develop contingency plans: Countries need to develop contingency plans in case of disruptions in wheat trade. These plans should include measures to increase domestic wheat production, provide food assistance to the poor and vulnerable, and stabilize food prices.

* Invest in programs to support the poor and vulnerable: The poor and vulnerable are most likely to be affected by disruptions in wheat trade. Governments need to invest in programs that support these groups, such as food assistance programs, nutrition programs, and social protection programs.

By taking these steps, policy makers can help to mitigate the impact of disruptions in wheat trade on food security.