March Madness. The NCAA Tournament. The Big Dance. Whatever you call it, the biggest month in college basketball has arrived, and the beautiful thing about March Madness is you don't need to be a die-hard sports fan to participate.
The single-elimination tournament pits 64 of the best teams in men's college basketball against each other, and while the players duke it out on the court, friend groups and workplaces around the country compete to see who can correctly predict the results of each game in the tournament.
Here's this year's bracket:
Streeter Lecka/Getty Images Sport/GettyImagesAnyone can fill out a bracket, and based on how insanely tough it is to get a perfect bracket, there's no tried-and-true formula to picking winners. If you're participating for the first time, we're here to make it easier.
Create the (almost) perfect bracket: Here's How
Create the (almost) perfect bracket: Here's How
Statistics play a big role in March Madness, and you don't have to understand advanced metrics or basketball jargon to have data on your side. Simply looking at how teams have done in the past reveals a lot of trends, and can give you a big leg up on your bracket opponents.
Sciencing's data science team has scoured the March Madness history books to prep you for to the 2019 tournament.
We won't get too deep into the seeding process, but what you need to know is this: The main 64 teams are divided into four regions (West, South, Midwest, East) and ranked from No. 1 to No. 16 in each region. Our statistics are mainly centered around historical win percentage based on these seedings.
A few things to note, before we hop in:
These are some picks you can pretty safely count on. Don't think twice when checking your own bracket against these predictions:
Click here if you want a closer look at our team's full dataset.
So you're feeling a little aggressive, huh? If you're looking for some high-risk, high-reward moves, we've got some predictions.
From here, we'll go ahead and offer you statistics based on each round in the tournament.
Upsets:
There have been ~4.6 upsets on an average in the Round of 64 every year. Here are the most common matchups to result in an upset:
Matchups not listed above:
Upsets:
There have been ~2.9 upsets on an average in the Round of 32 every year. Here are the most common pairings to result in an upset:
Matchups not shown above:
Upsets:
There have been ~0.21 upsets on an average in the Sweet Sixteen every year or one upset every five years. The following are the only three pairings to result in an upset:
Matchups not listed above:
Upsets:
There have been ~0.3 upsets on an average in the Elite Eight every year or approximately one upset every three years.
The Elite Eight is more likely to feature an upset than the Sweet Sixteen.
Following are the only five pairings to result in an upset:
There’s been only one instance of the Final Four featuring exclusively No. 1 seeds. UCLA, Memphis, Kansas and North Carolina completed the feat in 2008, which proves it’s unlikely that all four No. 1 seeds will make the Final Four.
\def\arraystretch{1.5} \begin{array}{c:c:c:c} Final \;Four\;Seed\;Distribution& Occurences\;Since\;1985 \\ \hline At \; least \;one \;No.\; 1\;seed & 32/34 \\ \hdashline At\;least\;one\;No.\;2\;seed & 22/34 \\ \hdashline At\;least\;one\;top\;four\;seed & 34/34 \end{array}Final Four seeds since 2013:
\def\arraystretch{1.5} \begin{array}{c:c:c:c} Year & Seeds\;in\;Final\;Four \\ \hline 2018 & 1, 1,3,11 \\ \hdashline 2017 & 1,7,1,3 \\ \hdashline 2016 & 1,10,2,2\\ \hdashline 2015 & 1,7,1,1\\ \hdashline 2014 & 7,1,8,2\\ \hdashline 2013 & 1,9,4,4 \end{array}Upsets:
There have been ~0.09 upsets on an average in the Final Four every year, or about one upset every eleven years. The following are the only two matchups to result in an upset:
No seeds from No. 9-16 have ever made it to finals, so it's probably not the best idea to pick one of those as your winner.
\def\arraystretch{1.5} \begin{array}{c:c:c:c} Finals\;Seed\;Distribution & Occurrences\;Since\;1985\\ \hline Both\;seeds\;are\;No.\;1 & 7/34 \\ \hdashline At\;least\;one\;No.\;1\;seed & 26/34 \\ \hdashline At\;least\;one\;No.\;2\;seed & 13/34\\ \hdashline At\;least\;one\;top\;four\;seed & 33/34\\ \end{array}The No. 8 seed has made the finals three times which is historically fewer times than only the top three seeds:
\def\arraystretch{1.5} \begin{array}{c:c:c:c} Seed & Appearaces\;in\;Championship\\ \hline No.\;1 & 26\\ \hdashline No.\;2 & 13 \\ \hdashline No.\;3& 9\\ \hdashline No.\;8 & 3\\ \end{array}The only time when none of the top four seeds made it to finals was in 2014 (No. 7 vs. No. 8).
Finalists in recent years:
\def\arraystretch{1.5} \begin{array}{c:c:c:c} Year & Seed\;Matchup \\ \hline 2018 & 1\;vs.\;3 \\ \hdashline 2017 & 1\;vs.\;1 \\ \hdashline 2016 & 2\;vs.\;1\\ \hdashline 2015 & 1\;vs.\;1\\ \hdashline 2014 & 7\;vs.\;8\\ \hdashline 2013 & 1\;vs.\;4 \end{array}Results:
Upsets:
There have been ~0.06 upsets on an average in the National Championship every year or about one upset every seventeen years. These are the only two pairings to result in an upset:
The graph above shows upset percentage by round since 1985. It's important to note, however, that the total number of games (in parentheses on the X axis) only represent the number of games that could result in an upset.
Remember, we define an upset as a seed difference of five or higher between the winning team and losing team. So when we say that 19 percent of games have resulted in an upset in the Round of 64, those 816 games are the number of contests between teams with that seed difference of five or higher.
Streeter Lecka/Getty Images Sport/GettyImagesWant to see how our data plays out? Meet the three sports bloggers who are implementing these stats into their March Madness brackets.
If you end up using our data in your bracket, let us know! Tag us on Twitter @realsciencing or shoot us an email at hello@sciencing.com.
