The model shows that the balance between positive and negative interactions determines whether a society thrives or collapses. When positive interactions are more common, societies are more likely to be stable and prosperous. Conversely, when negative interactions are more common, societies are more likely to be unstable and prone to collapse.
The model also shows that the size of a society plays a role in its stability. Smaller societies are more likely to be stable than larger societies which is opposite of how this relationship commonly plays out in nature due to a different type of complexity at work.. This is because smaller societies have fewer people to interact with, which means that positive interactions are more likely to occur. In contrast, larger societies have more people to interact with, which means that negative interactions are more likely to occur.
- The model's prediction -that smaller societies are more stable than larger societies is supported by historical evidence.
For example, small hunter-gatherer societies have typically been more stable than large agricultural societies. Complex agricultural societies depend on social and technological features including a large population (at minimum ten-thousand strong); intensive agriculture (allowing accumulation of surpluses to support non food-producing specialists.
The model presented helps to explain why complex societies sometimes collapse. When negative interactions increase within a society and society exceeds critical size thresholds it often results in societal collapse. For example, environmental degradation resulting from unsustainable agricultural techniques can increase competition for resources between groups, making collapse more likely. Political oppression in complex society can limit innovation necessary to avoid resource pitfalls, creating additional conditions necessary for societal disintegration. Climate change and resource constraints, can add negative externalities that create conditions likely to result in societies passing their size thresholds towards societal disruption
Understanding societal dynamics will become an imperative as climate related changes are likely to increasingly create conditions more likely to trigger societal disintegration in our era as climate related stress, population density , and geopolitical competition all increase together. This model provides additional understanding on the role social and technological advancement will have in our collective futures at addressing these conditions that may cause the unraveling of societies.
