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Climate change is accelerating sea‑level rise, threatening to submerge some of the world’s largest cities by the end of this century. NASA projects a global rise of 3 to 6 feet by 2100, which could displace hundreds of millions of people. Flooding—already the most common natural disaster—will become more frequent and severe as the planet warms by 3.2°C. Below are ten major urban centers that face imminent submersion, including the world’s most populous city.
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Alexandria, Egypt’s second‑largest city and the Mediterranean’s biggest port, houses an estimated 5.7 million residents in 2024. Founded by Alexander the Great in 332 B.C., the city has long been a hub of commerce and learning. Today it remains a key node in the SUMED oil pipeline, linking the Red Sea to Europe. However, the very fossil‑fuel infrastructure that fuels global trade is also driving ice melt and sea‑level rise. The UN Climate Change Panel warns that up to 30 % of Alexandria could be submerged by 2050, displacing 1.5 million people and threatening the surrounding Nile Delta.
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Jakarta, Indonesia’s capital and largest city, is home to 11.4 million people (2024). Situated on a low‑lying floodplain with 13 rivers draining into the Java Sea, the city is sinking at an alarming rate of 17 cm (6.7 in) per year. Since 2007, Jakarta has experienced escalating floods, claiming 80 lives and inflicting billions in damage. In 2022, Indonesia announced plans to relocate its capital to Borneo, citing flooding, congestion, and pollution. The new city, Nusantara, is slated for completion in 2045, offering a refuge for those displaced by Jakarta’s submergence.
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Miami’s population is approximately 460,000, but the metropolitan area houses over 6 million residents. More than half of Miami‑Dade County sits less than 6 ft above sea level, with projections that 60 % could be underwater by 2060. Rapid waterfront development—especially luxury high‑rise buildings—has exposed over $400 billion in real‑estate to flood risk, more than any other city worldwide. In worst‑case scenarios, Miami could become one of the most economically devastating flood events in history.
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Lagos, Africa’s largest city, has 16.5 million residents (2024) and is growing at an unprecedented pace, with 2,000 people moving daily from rural areas. The city sits on a low plain, with its historic core on an island. Ground subsidence exceeds 3 in per year, and an inefficient drainage system is already overwhelmed. The “Great Wall of Lagos”—a massive concrete barrier—may inadvertently worsen flood risk by preventing natural water flow. Coastal erosion from sand mining further compounds the threat, jeopardizing Lagos’s long‑term viability.
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Dhaka, Bangladesh’s capital, ranks as the world’s fourth‑most populous city with 23.9 million residents (2024). Located on the Ganges River delta, the city is prone to monsoon flooding from June to September. Bangladesh is among the top ten countries most affected by natural disasters. Dhaka’s rapid population growth, driven by rural displacement, has intensified groundwater extraction, causing the city to sink up to 0.5 in per year—well above the global sea‑level rise rate.
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Yangon, Myanmar’s largest city, houses 5.7 million people (2024). Built on silt deposits of the Yangon River delta, the city experiences frequent monsoon flooding. Its gravity‑based drainage system is overwhelmed by tides and river surges. Excessive groundwater extraction and proximity to the Sagaing Fault exacerbate subsidence, threatening to collapse wells and sink large swaths of the city.
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Bangkok’s 11.2 million residents (2024) occupy a low‑lying delta where the Chao Phraya River meets the Gulf of Thailand. The city’s extensive canal network earns it the nickname “Venice of the East.” Coastal erosion has pushed the shoreline inland by over 1 km per year, and many neighborhoods are already submerged. Groundwater pumping, banned in the 1970s, was a major driver of land loss; however, the city remains vulnerable to future sea‑level rise.
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Kolkata, the third‑largest Indian city, has 15.6 million residents (2024). Situated on the Ganges Delta, the city lies in a low‑lying region susceptible to both rising sea levels and cyclonic flooding. Groundwater extraction has pushed parts of the city below sea level. In 2024, floods in West Bengal displaced over 250,000 people; a similar event in Kolkata could displace over 10 million residents.
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Manila, the Philippines’ capital, is part of the Metropo Manila region, which houses 14.9 million people (2024) and boasts the world’s highest population density at 110,000 people per square mile. Built on a low‑lying swampy plain where the Pasig River meets Manila Bay, the city faces compounded risks from sea‑level rise, groundwater extraction, and seismic activity from the nearby Taal volcano. The city sinks up to 4 in per year, far exceeding global sea‑level rise. Extensive mangrove loss—130,000 acres removed since the 20th century—has reduced natural coastal protection, leaving many neighborhoods vulnerable beyond the current seawall.
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The Greater Bay Area is the world’s largest urban conglomerate, home to 86.9 million people (2024). The region, which includes Hong Kong, Macao, and nine cities in Guangdong Province, sits on the Pearl River Delta, a low‑lying, swampy basin surrounded by canals. The Chinese government estimates that up to 25 % of the country’s coastline could be underwater by 2100, with the delta expected to experience a 5‑ft rise. While Hong Kong and Macao do not pump groundwater, Guangzhou and other cities do, contributing to subsidence. With a 2021 GDP of $2 trillion—equal to Canada’s economy—this area is a critical driver of China’s exports and global supply chains, placing millions at risk of sinking.
