Climate Central’s 2025 sea‑level rise and coastal flood map—drawing on data from NOAA, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers—highlights a stark future for Florida’s shoreline.
The interactive tool projects that by 2150, large portions of the Florida coastline—including the iconic Keys, the Everglades National Park, and key urban centers—could be submerged or experience severe flooding. Even as early as 2030, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and Fort Myers face increased risks of 100‑year floods, with the southern tip of the state poised for the most dramatic impacts.
When the map is filtered for a 1% annual flood probability, the area of concern expands to encompass vast stretches of the Keys and the southern tip. A 50% annual flood probability further enlarges the at‑risk zone, underscoring the urgency for adaptation measures.
In 2050, Florida tops the national list of states with the highest number of people and homes in flood‑prone zones—505,000 residents and 355,000 properties—based on the assumption that current global emissions pledges are met. These figures illustrate not just environmental loss, but significant socio‑economic disruption.
Coastal flooding in the U.S. has tripled over the past three decades and is expected to increase tenfold by 2050, driven by the melting of polar ice sheets and thermal expansion of the oceans. Miami’s ongoing subsidence—over half of Miami‑Dade County sits less than 6 feet above sea level—has already begun to manifest, and projections from the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact indicate sea levels could rise 10–17 inches above 2000 levels by 2040.
These converging threats underscore that Florida’s coastal resilience hinges on aggressive mitigation and adaptation strategies. The time to act is now.
