A new study has found that natural greenhouse gas emissions from wetlands and permafrost could significantly impact the ability of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius.
The study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, found that these natural emissions could account for up to 25% of the total emissions allowed under the Paris Agreement by 2100.
This means that if these emissions are not taken into account, the world could be on track to exceed the 2 degree Celsius target, even if all other human-caused emissions are reduced to zero.
The study's findings are based on a new model that simulates how natural greenhouse gas emissions from wetlands and permafrost will respond to climate change.
The model found that these emissions will increase significantly as the climate warms, due to the thawing of permafrost and the expansion of wetlands.
This is because these ecosystems are currently frozen or waterlogged, which prevents them from releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
However, as the climate warms, these ecosystems will thaw and become more hospitable to plant growth, which will lead to increased greenhouse gas emissions.
The study's findings are a stark reminder that the Paris Agreement is not just about reducing human-caused emissions.
In order to truly limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, we must also address natural greenhouse gas emissions.
This will require a concerted effort to protect and restore wetlands and permafrost, and to develop new technologies to reduce emissions from these ecosystems.
The study's findings also highlight the importance of including natural greenhouse gas emissions in climate models.
Current climate models do not typically account for these emissions, which could lead to inaccurate predictions of future climate change.
By including natural greenhouse gas emissions in climate models, we can get a more accurate picture of the challenges we face in limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius.