A new model developed by researchers at the University of California, Berkeley, can predict how geographic features such as mountains, rivers, and deserts influence the evolutionary outcomes of species. The model, published in the journal Nature Ecology & Evolution, could help scientists better understand how biodiversity is distributed across the globe and how it is likely to be affected by climate change.

"Our model provides a way to predict how the geographic structure of a landscape will influence the evolutionary relationships among species," said study lead author Dr. Jonathan A. Moore, a postdoctoral researcher in the Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management at UC Berkeley. "This could have important implications for understanding the origins of biodiversity and how it is likely to be affected by human activities."

The model works by simulating the process of evolution on a landscape. The landscape is represented as a grid of cells, each of which can be occupied by a single species. The model then simulates the movement of species across the landscape, as well as the process of natural selection. Over time, the model produces a map of the distribution of species across the landscape, as well as a phylogenetic tree that shows the evolutionary relationships among the species.

The researchers tested the model by simulating evolution on a variety of different landscapes. They found that the model was able to accurately predict the distribution of species and the evolutionary relationships among them. The model also showed that geographic features can have a significant impact on the evolutionary outcomes of species. For example, mountains can act as barriers to gene flow, leading to the divergence of populations and the formation of new species. Rivers can also act as barriers, but they can also provide corridors for dispersal, allowing species to move between different areas of the landscape.

"Our model provides a new way to understand how geographic features influence evolution," said study senior author Dr. Justin Y. Chen, an assistant professor in the Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management at UC Berkeley. "This could have important implications for our understanding of biodiversity and how it is likely to be affected by climate change."

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of species, as well as the barriers to their dispersal. This could have a significant impact on the evolutionary outcomes of species, leading to the extinction of some species and the emergence of new ones. The new model could help scientists predict how these changes are likely to occur, and could inform conservation efforts to protect biodiversity.