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March Madness – the NCAA tournament that captures the nation’s imagination – is back. Whether you’re a seasoned fan or a casual observer, the tournament offers a unique opportunity to test your predictive instincts against 64 of the country’s best college teams.

Each year, 64 teams from the four regional brackets (West, South, Midwest, East) are seeded 1‑16. The higher the seed number, the weaker the team. Our analysis focuses on historical win percentages and upset patterns since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

How Teams are Ranked

Seeding is determined by the NCAA Selection Committee based on overall record, strength of schedule, and other performance metrics. We define an upset as a victory by a team whose seed is five or more places lower than the opponent’s (e.g., a 12‑seed beats a 5‑seed).

Safe Predictions

• A top‑three seed (1, 2, or 3) has an 88% chance of winning the tournament.
• At least one upset is guaranteed each year.
• While not all four No. 1 seeds reach the Final Four, at least one will.
• No seed lower than No. 8 will reach the championship game.
• At least one of the top four seeds will play in the title match.

For a deeper dive into the data behind these probabilities, click here.

Ambitious Predictions

• Eight or more upsets can occur in a single tournament.
• At least one team seeded 5 or higher will advance to the Final Four.

Round‑by‑Round Upset Statistics

Round of 64

Average upsets: ~4.6 per tournament.

• 11‑vs‑6: 51 times
• 12‑vs‑5: 47 times
• 13‑vs‑4: 28 times
• 14‑vs‑3: 21 times
• 15‑vs‑2: 8 times

Round of 32

Average upsets: ~2.9 per tournament.

• 7‑vs‑2: 25 times
• 10‑vs‑2: 18 times
• 11‑vs‑3: 17 times
• 8‑vs‑1: 13 times
• 12‑vs‑4: 12 times

Sweet Sixteen

Average upsets: ~0.21 (about one upset every five years).

• 10‑vs‑3: 4 times
• 11‑vs‑2: 2 times
• 9‑vs‑4: 1 time

Elite Eight

Average upsets: ~0.3 (roughly one upset every three years).

• 11‑vs‑1: 3 times
• 8‑vs‑2: 3 times
• 6‑vs‑1: 2 times
• 10‑vs‑1: 1 time
• 9‑vs‑2: 1 time

Final Four

Only one tournament (2008) featured all four No. 1 seeds. The Final Four has historically included at least one No. 1 seed in 32 of 34 tournaments since 1985.

• No. 8 and No. 11 seeds have each reached the Final Four four times.
• No. 12–16 seeds have never advanced beyond the Elite Eight.
• Since 2013, at least one seed higher than No. 6 has appeared in the Final Four.

National Championship

Only top‑three seeds have won the title in 30 of 34 championships. No seed 9–16 has ever reached the final game.

• No. 1 seed wins: 21 times
• No. 2 seed wins: 13 times
• No. 3 seed wins: 9 times
• No. 8 seed appears: 3 times

Upset opportunities in the final game are extremely rare – roughly one upset every 17 years.

Upset Trends Over Time

Since 1985, the average number of upsets per tournament has been about 8.1. The Elite Eight sees the highest upset rate among all rounds, with over 30 possible matchups that could result in an upset.

Join Our Community

We’re collaborating with three sports bloggers who are integrating these statistics into their March Madness brackets. If you incorporate our data, let us know! Tweet us at @realsciencing or email hello@sciencing.com.