A team of scientists, including researchers from the University of Leeds, have developed a model that shows how volcanic ash can be transported long distances by the jet stream. The model could help to improve forecasts of ash plumes and mitigate the disruption caused by volcanic eruptions.

Volcanic ash is a fine, abrasive powder that can cause significant damage to aircraft engines, making it a major hazard to aviation. When a volcano erupts, ash is ejected into the atmosphere, where it can be transported by winds over long distances. In 2010, for example, an eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland caused widespread disruption to air travel across Europe, with more than 10 million passengers affected.

The new model, developed by researchers from Leeds, the University of Bristol, and the University of Reading, shows how ash plumes can be transported by the jet stream. The model takes into account the effects of wind speed, wind direction, and the size and density of the ash particles.

The model results show that ash plumes can be transported over long distances by the jet stream, even if the eruption is relatively small. For example, the model predicts that an eruption of the Sakurajima volcano in Japan could produce an ash plume that travels across the Pacific Ocean and reaches the west coast of North America.

The new model could help to improve forecasts of ash plumes and mitigate the disruption caused by volcanic eruptions. By predicting the path of ash plumes, airlines can avoid flying through hazardous areas and passengers can be given advance warning of potential disruptions.

The research is published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.