A new model developed by researchers at the University of Washington and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory can more accurately predict how massive glaciers melt in response to changes in climate.

The model, published in the journal Nature, takes into account how glaciers flow and deform as they melt. This is an important factor in predicting how the world's glaciers will respond to future climate change, as melting glaciers are a major contributor to sea level rise.

"Previous models of glacier melt did not take into account how the glaciers themselves change as they melt," said first author Sophie Nowicki, a postdoctoral researcher at UW. "Our model includes these changes, which allows us to make more accurate predictions about how glaciers will respond to future climate change."

The researchers used their model to simulate the retreat of the Jakobshavn Glacier in Greenland, one of the fastest-melting glaciers in the world. The model predicted that the glacier would retreat at a rate of about 1 mile (1.6 kilometers) per year over the next century. This is consistent with observations of the glacier's retreat in recent years.

The researchers also used their model to simulate the retreat of the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica, which is considered to be one of the most vulnerable glaciers in the world. The model predicted that the Thwaites Glacier could retreat at a rate of about 10 miles (16 kilometers) per year over the next century. This is faster than previous models have predicted.

"Our model shows that the Thwaites Glacier is potentially more unstable than previously thought," said senior author Ian Joughin, a professor of glaciology at UW. "This is a major concern, as the Thwaites Glacier alone could raise sea levels by several feet over the next century."

The researchers say that their model is a significant improvement over previous models of glacier melt. They hope that it will be used to inform future decisions about how to mitigate the effects of climate change on glaciers.

"Our model provides a more accurate way to predict how glaciers will respond to future climate change," said Nowicki. "This information can be used to develop policies to protect glaciers and reduce the impacts of climate change on sea level rise."