A new mathematical model that simulates the spread of disease through social networks can assess how provisions, such as food or protection, affect the spread of wildlife diseases. The model, developed by researchers at the University of California, Davis, could help wildlife managers design more effective strategies to prevent or control disease outbreaks.

"Understanding the social networks of wildlife is critical for understanding how diseases spread," said lead author Benjamin Dalziel.

The model takes into account social factors such as group size, contact rates, and spatial structure, as well as environmental factors such as resource availability and habitat quality.

"This is one of the first models to explicitly represent social structure and resource competition in the context of wildlife disease," said Dalziel. "Previous models have typically assumed that animals mix randomly, which can lead to inaccurate predictions about disease spread."

The model can be used to evaluate how different types of provisions affect disease spread. For example, the model shows that providing food can help to reduce disease spread in some cases, but it can also exacerbate disease spread in other cases.

"The effects of provisions on disease spread can be complex and context-dependent," said study co-author Christine Kreuder Johnson. "Our model can help wildlife managers to identify the conditions under which provisions are likely to be helpful or harmful."

The findings of the study, published in the journal Ecological Modelling, could help wildlife managers to design more effective strategies to prevent or control disease outbreaks in wildlife populations. For example, the model could be used to identify the optimal locations for placing food or water resources to minimize disease spread.

"This model provides us with a new tool for understanding and managing wildlife diseases," said Kreuder Johnson. "We hope that it will be used by wildlife managers to help protect wildlife from disease."